Forecast oil prices

Oil will be cheaper?

In brief: Oil prices will not rise - according to analysts and market experts, but hope for stability is still warm.

The dynamics of oil production in late March / early April turned out to be somewhat more positive than we expected, but by the weakening of the euphoria about the global economy and restore investor attention shifts to the problems of the euro area optimism in the market significantly reduced. In these circumstances, investors have been paying more attention, and other fundamental factors, particularly in light of DOE reports in recent weeks again increased concern about the fact that the recovery in demand is unlikely to be strong enough to support sustained considerable adjustment reserves.

Oil reserves are showing steady growth since January this year and surely approaching the maxima of 2009, stocks of distillates, which previously contributed to the correction of more cold weather, with the arrival of spring also began to grow, and gasoline supplies in the early driving season remain near-term highs. In addition, in recent weeks, was marked by steady growth of oil in storage Kashin, who, according to a recent report, reached a record value of 37 million barrels, which only supported the strengthening of bearish sentiment. As a result, over the past two weeks, oil has lost in value more than fifteen dollars, and after attempts to use the support around $ 75 as a platform to rebound above showed a weak activity of buyers and have a good interest in selling in attempts to growth, “black gold” has continued fall. Today it set fresh lows near $ 71.05 and, while attempts to exclude the above correction is not worth it, break the trend line with a minimum of 2009 and the lower boundary of the ascending channel since last summer, as well as a number of other technical signals suggests a marked deterioration in sentiment. Attempts to recovery will likely continue to attract interest in selling, and keeping the concerns about the situation in the euro area and the prospects for the world economy as a whole oil in the coming week has a chance to continue to decline to $ 65, and at worst-case scenario of events and $ 55 per barrel.

Ukrainian Globalist
2010-05-16 19:17, Commodities.

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