The global financial crisis is nearing the end?

Recession goes to its' end

In brief: Good performance of developing countries in the modern world multi-polar economic growth are encouraging - the words contained in the report World Bank Chief Economist Justin Yifu Lin. - But that recovery has continued, high-income countries should use the opportunities provided by rapid growth in developing countries.

Economic growth around the world this year amount to 2,9% and will continue to strengthen in 2011 (3.3%) and 2011 (+3,2-3,5%). This analysts wrote in the report of the World Bank (WB) “Global Economic Perspectives”, published on the website of the organization. World GDP in 2009 declined by 2.1%.

Developing economies will grow annually within 5,7-6,2% from 2010 to 2012, analysts have estimated the WB. Prospects for the advanced economies will be less rosy: in 2010 they can expect GDP growth of 2,1-2,3%, and it is not enough to counterbalance the economic downturn in 3,3% in 2009. In 2011 the GDP of developed countries will increase by 1,9-2,4%. Restoring the world economy faces in the medium term with several serious obstacles: the reduction of international capital flows, high unemployment and conservation in many countries of unrealized economic reserves in excess of 10% of GDP. While the influence of European debt crisis to date has already restricted, prolonged increase in sovereign debt can increase borrowing costs and reduce investment and economic growth in developing countries.

Efforts by the International Monetary Fund and the European Union will prevent a default or large-scale restructuring of sovereign debt of European countries, says WB. Despite this, developing countries and regions that have close trade and financial ties with the countries with high levels of public debt, can feel the adverse effects due to the problems of their neighbors. Regardless of what will happen with the sovereign debt in Europe, the emergence of a second wave of financial crisis can not be excluded in some emerging European countries and Central Asia. “Developing countries are not immune from the impact of the crisis of sovereign debt in the wealthy countries – a noted director of global macroeconomics WB Andrew Burns. “However, we expect that many countries continue to feel good if they focus on growth strategies, improve the business climate and increase cost-effectiveness.

Ukrainian Globalist
2010-06-12 15:22, Economics.

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