U.S. GDP growth to slow down

The U.S. economy is still under the sway of recession

In brief: The U.S. GDP will fall short of 1%, Nouriel Roubini stated. A number of analysts predict the situation will change in the beginning of 2011.

The professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business Nouriel Roubini believes that in the third quarter U.S. GDP growth won’t exceed 1%. The economist evaluates the chances of a repeated recession at 40%. One can hardly question Roubini’s estimates, but how could they help to make money with such forecasts?

Prior to a new turn of recession the markets may rise and fall a number of times. Being aware of this, investors are turning attention to the U.S. statistics on jobless claims. Last week jobless filed half-million applications, while market analysts predicted 490 thousand. If today’s number of jobless claims exceeds the 500 thousand-mark, the S&P-500 index will swiftly fall to 1030 points. At the moment, analysts are switching from 1090-1060 to the parallel band of 1060-1090. The oil prices grew yesterday, mainly due to technical reasons. In the early trading oil prices fell to the strong support level of $ 70 per barrel, after which sellers started closing short positions, while Bulls went up hoping for a bounce. Taking into account reports on growing oil deposits, this tactics is unlikely to stimulate growth. Wу advise taking an observational stance looking forward to tomorrow’s economic forecasts by Federal Reserve chairman B.Bernanke.

Igor Tringlers
2010-08-26 15:31, Economics.

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