Economic news: developing countries castigate recession

Developing countries are first to find the way up

In brief: Specialists consider that China, India, Russia and Brazil are close to quit the recession

Brazil, Argentina, Russia, China, India, Poland and SAR are first to overcome the recession. The matter is that returning perspectives seems simpler than keeping well existing positions. Developing countries invest in actives avoiding those passing by. Some years ago the USA was the leader in the world economics.

But there are a lot of reasons to suppose that situation has turned upside-down nowadays and the USA now depend on the rest world. It’s enough to look over peculiarities of the last economic statistics in the USA to understand the reason. In spite of appearing signs of renewal the level of unemployment continues growing up. In October it has reached the 10.2% point. Unemployment is going to get new high levels. If there is a renewal why do most of companies discharge employees?
The breach in work market conditions during last months has reached its upper bounds since 1990s. The matter is that the US manufacturing industry has been being in collapse for already some decades. According to the ISM index even the companies of the leading US spheres of business are in collapse now.
If everything is well in the sphere of production so why do these fields of US economics get such a low result? The reason is probably in the fall in exchange of USD. During last 8 years the US dollar has lost 1/3 of its value. But the US export and import have grown up in 2009 so that it disproves the domination of USD devaluation in its process.
The fact of exploration of the world economic conditions but not the local ones seems to be the most trustworthy explanation. It shows that commodity trade continues dominating in the world trade cycle. It is that improvement of the US manufacturing industry indices agree with those in Europe. The matter is that all the large corporations have become transnational. Thus currency exchange fluctuations don’t affect their activities. The more important is change of reserves.
In the beginning of 2009 most of companies got rid of reserves by reducing its production. Now the tendency towards reducing reserves is going to quit provoking growth of production. The improvement of the world production positions reflects the change of its demand. Unlike great states developing countries invest in actives avoiding those passing by. So these investments will continue increasing. Thus developing countries has passed the crisis earlier.
To be true the economics of the USA and Great Britain fell down two years ago. And now in conditions of the world economic crisis it is to hard to lift it up. So the companies have to control very hard their expenses. Therefore labour-markets continue to be in collapse. The rapid growth of production seems to save the situation. But it not as good as it seems.
Thus the renewal has to be connected with the growth of demand of developing markets.

Ukranian Globalist
2009-11-11 12:41, Commodities, Economics.

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