On the other hand, despite assuasive statements by high-ranking officials and a number of positive reports, the U.S. economy is still on the edge of a repeated recession, which is another reason for evasion from risky assets. In fact, despite the favorable NFP report last Friday, the prospects of labor market recovery are equally vague. According to a Manpower research, the U.S. workforce won’t be sought after in the fourth quarter, as opposed to a great request for employees in China, India, Brazil and Taiwan. The ensuing U.S. unemployment rate may go up to 10% once again. All said, today’s Beige Book report is unlikely to reverse the trend in the market. Rather, it will either confirm, or refute investors’ outlook with regards to the condition of the U.S. economy. In case of unfavorable news, the U.S. dollar may gain value against the background of risk evasion. EUR. Now the pan-European currency goes on falling amid fears that sovereign debt risks may wreck European banking system, leading to negative impact on economic recovery in the Eurozone. No wonder, such bad news led to the expansion of spreads, while rumors grew in the market that the ECB had intervened Tuesday morning in the bond market to support sovereign debts of the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) member states.

Unfavorable data on German factory orders placed an additional strain on the Euro rate. Decrease in their figures, another indicator of slowing recovery in the EU, is reflecting falling demand in the Eurozone. Even the statement by the ECB chairman E.Novotny, in which he stressed that the EU isn’t under the threat of deflation, and that its member states facing debt crisis made good progress in overcoming threats they had faced, couldn’t stop the Euro downfall. According to data on Germany’s trade balance published today, the seasonal surplus showed slight growth by 12.7 bln. euros, comparing to 12.4 bln. euros in June., falling short of backing up the pan-European currency rate. If data on industrial production equally fall short of forecasts, the Euro will face pressure bridging the backing of 1.2670. What is more, its fluctuation can bу stimulated by an abatement in EUR|GBP cross rate). GBP. Now yesterday the British Pound couldn’t bridge the backing of 1.53 rate and started retreating, equally owing to the dynamics of GBP|EUR cross rate, against the background of a lack of reports. Today the Pound showed considerable growth, the reason being Halifax data on house prices that surpassed forecasts.

Pound / dollar recovered from the session’s low at $ 1.5463 and trading at the level above $ 1.5520. According to the dealers, orders for sale are concentrated in the area of $ 1.5540/50 with stops above. The breakthrough of these levels led to an increase pound / dollar to a mark of $ 1.5565, above that mark is also seen stop orders, and further to $ 1.5580. The pound / dollar could be traded at $ 1.5525.

However, according to UBS currency analysts, it is possible that this is good news for Australia’s end. Buy coal and iron, and use them – not one and the same. Some factors indicate that the quantities of raw materials and finished goods in China are beginning to grow again, while leading indicators signal a weakening of growth.

Among the buyers on the decline to 1.2777 dealers called the Swiss bank account. Now the euro / dollar continues recovery and is trading at 1.2810/20 area. Dealers noted that similar developments in the trade for the pair was observed on Thursday, when the Swiss private bank in turn provoked a pair. Swiss accounts in the past been among buyers euros, but a private bank was not among them. Current euro / dollar 1.2820.

Barclays Bank Plc, the third largest trading on the currency market the bank has lowered forecasts for the U.S. dollar against the yen in the year following the lowering of the forecast U.S. Treasury bond yield. According to the forecast, the U.S. dollar will fall to 83 yen in the next month, significantly below the previous forecast of 90 yen. U.S. currency will trade at around 87 yen after 3 months, against the forecast of 94 yen. After 12 months, the currency pair will trade at around 92 yen per dollar, previously quoted figure of 98 yen per dollar.

Meanwhile, sentiment against the pound / dollar remains bearish. Satisfactory data on the trade balance in the UK have had only a small assistance. According to dealers, Ofer for euro / pound located in the area stg0.8350, feet above. In the case of overcoming the mark stg0.8350 expect further movement euro / pound to the next resistance in the area stg0.8360/65 with larger feet on the breakthrough. From the talk in the market, at stg0.8360 strike is an option, expiring in New York today.

Meanwhile, the balance of speculative positions in the Japanese yen also reached levels not seen since December 2009, up from 29,921 contracts to 47,998. As for the British currency, there is a net short back to the levels of late July 2008 and amounted to only 205 contracts after the 17,940 recorded twenty-seventh of July and 26,767 marked the 20th July. Net Long speculators in the Australian dollar reached a third August 48 715 40 533 contracts after the previous week, a Canadian, he has grown from 23,868 to 34,182 contracts.

Last month the dollar has fallen in price against all major currencies, partly because the words of Fed chairman that “prospects for the U.S. economy remains uncertain.” “Reports from the European data are surprisingly strong, while the second half in the United States promises to be difficult”, – said Vasily Serebryakov, currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York. – “At present, the market expects the Fed’s next steps in the direction of quantitative easing if the economy continues to decline. It is these expectations are the cause of the current growth of appetite for risk.

Nevertheless, note in the bank, the pricing of the Fed, as well as a possible recession with a double bottom may prevent this sequence of events. Despite the euphoria surrounding the rising dynamics of extinction of the euro / dollar, Commerzbank currency analysts do not recommend a dollar bulls in the correction of positions in the short term, forget about the peaceful tone of the Fed. Current euro / dollar 1.2993.

The bank pay attention to the fact that after the stabilization of the above support at Y131.30, the British currency broke above resistance at Y135.64, violating the consolidation of trade, which dominated the beginning of June, and now the pound / yen can be expected of a rising momentum in direction Y141/Y142. At Citigroup had previously recommended to buy a pair of Y136.27 with a stop at Y134.30. She currently holds around Y136.16, Ofer noted in the Y136.25/30, the larger are in Y136.50/60.