Currency exchange rate in Ukraine: the euro will fall

The exchange rate in Ukraine: the euro will fall

In brief: Ukraine is waiting for the collapse of the euro. Single European currency will continue to fall against the threat of defaults in the euro area.

Eric Naiman, known in Ukraine financial expert, is taken to enlighten those who are politely referred to as “ordinary investors. In the interview he spoke about the impact of the second wave of crisis in Ukraine, about when to buy currency and how to keep their savings from depreciation.

The second wave of crisis

- Eric, now a lot of talk about the second wave of crisis, which began in Europe. What’s your problem?

- They gave rise to an inconsistency tax, credit and so forth policies in the EU. It created, for example, the European Central Bank, which regulates monetary policy. But every country in Europe has its own Ministry of Finance, budget, taxation, national debt, budget deficit, etc. In the case of Greece, this led to the fact that the Ministry of Finance to borrow money, assuming a huge budget deficit. They counted on the stability of the economy, but miscalculated, and the situation got out of control.

Now comes the next wave of crisis. Her feature – the accumulation of public debt. In Europe, except Greece, at risk – Italy, Spain, Ireland and Portugal.

- In Greece, the accumulation of debt in the $ 300 billion, accusing American investment funds

- No, the public debt of Greece to pay off this year – only about 25 billion euros. Most of this is already extinguished, so the issue of arrears of Greece is not relevant, you can discuss the issue of corporate debt. In general, the events recalled the events in Ukraine. Back in December of 2009, quotes exceeded 1.5 dollars per euro. Press shouting about threats to U.S. financial pyramid. In the wake of this panic, many Ukrainians have sold dollars and bought euros. And now, the euro fell back to 1,2. This large fluctuations in the currency market, which periodically rock the speculators in the market. Every time is a simple thing: wanting to earn billions, ordinary, speculators pay experts for panic comment. Well, journalists, lovers of fried, panic fan. In such cases, not yield to provocations and sell the supposedly debased currency. Pakistan, unfortunately, succumbed.

- What are behaving in such cases, the Europeans?

- Local investors do not rush to sell euros and buy dollars. They know that small investors ultimately lose to the professionals, so long did not play. In this they differ from the Ukrainians, who go on about the black market.

- How many Euros have lost against the dollar since the beginning of the year?

- From the peak in December 2009 – order of 20%. This is very much, it is as if hryvnia devalued from 8 to 9.6 per dollar.

NBU’s policy revolves around the dollar. When he fell against the euro, hryvnia against the euro, too devalued. Now the national currency has returned to the level at which launched two years ago. However, she remained stable against the dollar. That is, in Ukraine against the euro triggered a foreign market, rather than internal factors – NBU puts the euro on the basis of international prices.

In what currency better store savings

- When is a good buy euros for the average Ukrainian investor?

- Prior to October this year, the euro may fall to 9 and even 8 hryvnia. When the euro fall to parity with the dollar, you can start to buy it to increase its share in the savings. However, those who have the euro already, nervous, too, especially not worth it. So, now it looks worse than the dollar. And six months later again “clarified” that the U.S. currency problems worse – and the euro looks preferable.

- Is it worth the depositor to withdraw from deposit one currency to buy another, and carry her back to the bank? What tactics best to stick?

- It is better to have short-term deposits, which ends in August-October. Should choose a situation with high deposit rates and a stable value. We must not forget that when buying and selling currency, you lose at the margin, which the bank or exchange office take myself. And this is the order of 1-1,5%. If the amount is large, a decent loss. Therefore it is better to leave alone a deposit with low-income, at this point, currency, and make new contributions in a more profitable

Ukrainian Globalist
2010-06-15 22:58, Currency news.

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