Gasoline prices continue to rise in Ukraine

Petrol will go up in Ukraine

In brief: Petrol will rise in price again. Another law will cause a sharp rise in gasoline prices in Ukraine.

June 16 came into force Act № 6337 “On amendments to some legislative acts (in terms of taxation), which provides for an increase in excise duty on petroleum products. Higher fiscal burden of oil traders are already embedded in retail prices, thereby shifting the problem onto the shoulders of consumers. In the short term fuel will continue to go up under the pressure of world trends.

Under the new law, excise tax on gasoline brands and their components should be increased by 20 and 560% – 132 euros / t. From the explanatory note to the document that increased tax burden will not affect the retail prices. “Increasing the excise tax does not provoke a rise in prices for gasoline. In any case, a sharp rise in prices, we will not allow “, – commented on the law of Prime Minister Mykola Azarov. With this statement hard to accept when we recall the results of the last increase the excise duty, which occurred in December 2008. Then, the Verkhovna Rada voted to increase the excise tax on gasoline with an octane number of 76 to 98 at 83% – up to 110 euros per ton, after which the liter of the most popular fuel in the country’s A-95 rose by 11% – to 5,4 UAH. Despite this experience, while Azarov forecast comes true. For example, during the last week (since 16 June, when the law came into force) 95 th in the retail, on the contrary, it fell by 0,7% – to 7,75 grn. / L. At the same time, market experts say that local motorists witnessed this positive dynamics only due to the fact that in May (when oil was bought for processing at the refinery in June), the price of black gold in world markets has fallen to the lowest this year marks – $ 68 / barrel. “According to our estimates, in late May the 95 th was supposed to cost about 7,6 USD. / L (while on the fact he was sold on 8,06 UAH. / L. – Ed.). Reduction of prices at the gas station to this level has not happened because the new excise duties were laid in the retail prices well before the entry into force of the Law № 6337. By the way, the cost of fuel excise taxes are not taken into account the current (132 euros / t), as originally envisaged in the bill – 172 euros / t. So I do not think that the entry into force of the Law number 6337 does not trigger a rise in prices “, – said« k: »Deputy Director of the SEC” Psyche “Gennady Ryabtsev. At the same time, he said, to mid-July, gasoline A-95 in retail might appreciate (while maintaining the hryvnia exchange rate to the dollar) by around 30 kopecks. / L – up to 8,05 UAH. The reason for this, according to Ryabtseva, a price hike of oil in the first half of June.

About the same increase in fuel prices forecast in the consulting group A-95. “We have an instant reaction to the retail excise increase will not be. Although the objective of gasoline still have to pay more because the world oil market once again ran up, typing in price in the first half of June, 16% – to $ 77/barrel. On our forecasts, by mid-July the 95 th price will rise by up to 20 kopecks. / L – to 8 USD. / L “, – said« k: »director of” A-95 “Sergey Kuiun. In favor of this projection of at least two facts. First, recently in Ukraine gradually began to appreciate the 95 th in the large wholesale (per week the price rose to 130 UAH. / M – up to 8,25 UAH. / T). Secondly, now at home stations are gradually being depleted stocks of petroleum products produced from cheap raw materials in May. By the way, as reported «k:» State Statistics Committee, by the beginning of summer in Ukraine were formed significantly smaller reserves of fuel than last year. So, as of June 1, 2010 oil traders have accumulated fuel in the amount of 257.8 thousand tons (of which octane 95-98 – 116,4 thousand tons), as well as 422,3 thousand tons of diesel fuel. While on June 1, 2009 in the reserve was 388.8 thousand tons of gasoline (of which with an octane number of 95-98 – 202.7 thousand tons) and 438.7 thousand tons of diesel fuel. “Previously reserves sufficient for more than a month, but in recent years, many traders moved into the trade” with wheels “, which is why the current stock is less than last year. Accordingly, we can expect that by the beginning of July, the market will be petroleum, which was produced from oil purchased at higher prices “, – considers Ryabtsev.

According to market experts, future price volatility is unlikely to trigger a reduction in the supply of fuel. After clicking on the UAH 8. / L Ukraine has already passed this spring, and the market is at the peak of seasonal consumption. Another thing is that raising excise taxes – this is a good impetus to increase the market volume of poor-quality petroleum products. “For example, in June began to move trains smuggling of diesel fuel (up to 1.5 tons / day, or about 150 tank trucks / day) through the eastern border of Ukraine. This diesel by 50-60 kopecks. less formal, “- says Kuiun.

If any terms as oil traders and above can get quite good income from retail sales. As an example, calculations of one of the smaller parties petroleum products market – Kiev Ltd “Firm” Grant “. According to the «k:», a couple of months ago, this company was approved by the Economic Court of Kiev as an investor LLC Nafta LW “, which operates two stations in the Poltava region. According to the calculations “Companies” Grant “, it will be able to pay about 400 thousand UAH. Debt Nafta LW “as soon as possible because he expects to receive revenue from a gas station at about 102 thousand UAH per month. “Surcharge on petrol A-80 is 70 kopecks. / L, at A-92 – 80 kopecks., Diesel fuel – 85 kopecks. / L, and A-95 – 1,05 UAH. Thus, the average daily earnings of about 3,4 thousand grn. This net income per month of gas station (after deducting the cost of salaries, taxes, etc. – Ed.) Planned to reach 16,8 thousand UAH. “- Reads the calculations oil trader-investor.

Ukrainian Globalist
2010-06-27 11:03, Commodities.

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